Town of Erie Grows 40%, Town Infrastructure 7.5 Years Behind Forecast of 16% - 2015 to 2020
Andrew Sawusch • January 17, 2020
With a 40% actual population growth rate, compared to the Town's 16% forecast, the Town of Erie's infrastructure will be 7.5 years behind its current growth, and have received by the end of 2020 what it believed to be 12.5 years of population growth in just 5 years - straining the Town's infrastructure and leading to capacity concerns by major utility providers
Every 5 years, the Town of Erie updates their Comprehensive Plan to reflect changes within the town. Within the report, they will forecast the population trends, which are then used by the Town to predict where resources are needed in the future, as well as the projects that will need to be undertaken. Having been previously updated in 2015, and expected to undergo a revision this year in 2020, there was one item that stood out to me more than anything. Now, I know that the town should be
constantly monitoring this information yearly, but I have not seen anything to the effect.
Way down in the report, almost at the very end, in Appendix A, page A-7, Table 3, it shows the "Household and Population Projections - 2015-2035":
Reviewing this table, it appears that the town estimates that there are approximately 2.878 residents per dwelling unit, which results in the "Total Population" column seen. As well, the average estimated growth rate was forecast to be approximately 15.93% within each 5 year period. However, the total number of dwellings appears to be very low compared to actual totals previously reported.
Evaluating the yearly "Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports"
for the years 2015 through 2018 available on the Town's website, the total "# of Dwellings" can be updated to reflect the actual number of residential construction permits issued by the town in those given years. Since the 2019 annual report has not been issued, the "2019 Budget 2nd Supplemental Appropriation" can be used, and for 2020, the "2020 Budget"
adopted by the Trustees on October 22nd of this previous year. The "projected number of permits" to be issued for both of these years provide the best estimates in terms of coming up with the actual number of dwellings for these years. For the 2020 year, the amount is the total of single-family dwellings estimated, which does not include the 150 additional estimated multi-family or high-occupancy residential dwelling units that will be part of the Nine Mile project. For the subsequent years after 2020, the same estimated growth rate of approximately 15.93% can be maintained that was used in the Comprehensive Plan's forecasting. The totals are staggering:
The results, as seen in the above table, indicate that by the end of this year, the Town will have greatly exceeded the estimated growth rate that they predicted for 2015 to 2020, with an actual growth rate or 37.52%. Adding in the additional 150 dwelling units from the Nine Mile project's multi-family high-occupancy residential dwellings, this number further increases to a growth rate of just under 40% in 5 years time.
Here is what this means: the growth rate of 39.47% is not only 2.5x their original forecast projections of 15.93%. It means that the town will have received what it forecast to be a 12.5 year population increase in just 5 years. Since this comprehensive plan is the blueprint for the Town's future endeavors, this means that the town is currently 7.5 years behind
where they need to be.
This quick, rapid-paced growth strains our infrastructure. The first sign are choke points that begin to occur at key defined "Community Gateways" listed on the Town's Zoning Map. Because roads are not widened or redesigned in time, this leads to a larger volume of vehicles on the road, more traffic and congestion, and increased wait times at traffic lights. This then leads to a decreased life expectancy in terms of the roadways themselves, since more vehicles are traveling on them than initially expected. All of this can be seen on a daily basis by residents, as we have to sit sometimes up to 15 minutes at traffic lights, sometimes through 3 complete cycles, just to enter CO-7 and US-287.
Next, there becomes longer than needed wait times for essential services, such as police, fire and rescue, and other Town services. Due to the larger than anticipated volume of residents, as well as the ever-increasing development applications within the Town, Town staff become inundated with requests, slowing the amount of time from application to acceptance. These types of events have already occurred, as noted in the Town's News Flash
regarding the home invasion back in September. Although the police were contacted due to some suspicious activity just blocks away from where the armed robbery and kidnapping occurred, officers were unable to respond in a timely manner simply because there weren't any officers available due to their smaller than needed staff.
After this, there begins to be further depletion of our water and sewer infrastructure. Due to the increased demand, the life expectancy decreases for specific elements within our water supply distribution system, as well as our water treatment facility, creating the need for large capital expenditures to repair or replace the components. This was noted as occurring in an April 2019 Times-Call article, which noted that in 2017, Erie's North Water Reclamation Facility (wastewater) "hit about 81% capacity... By 2020, that number is expected to hit 95%." While the current expansion project is scheduled to take a few years, the article goes further on to say that "the facility's liquid capacity would be exceeded by 2021", meaning there is the potential that the project will not be completed in time prior to reaching the system's maximum capacity limit. Additionally, the 2020 Budget has a line item for the request of a new "Turbine at Water Treatment Facility - $1.8 million." This is surprising, considering most of the large components of a water treatment facility have an expected lifespan of approximately 25 years, but the Town now needs to replace the current turbine only after 15 years from when the facility was expanded between 2005 and 2007.
Finally, it leads to other major public utility providers being near or at capacity. Xcel has been the first provider to note this problem, specifically within Old Town. They have said that the capacity issue has reached a point where if something is not done within the next 12-18 months, businesses and residents here will have lower-than-necessary pressure levels for such things as hot water and heating. Only because Xcel came to the town with this issue did the Town of Erie decide to start the process of moving forward, as indicated by the "Infrastructure Improvement Study for Old Town" approved by the Board of Trustees during the January 14th Board Meeting (resolution 20-014).
These reasons, and the information presented earlier, indicate why Forward Thinking is needed now on the Board of Trustees, and why my largest single campaign Issue Item
of concern is Manageable Growth and Sustainable Infrastructure.
*Just a side note to all of the items that I discuss: I am a solutions driven problem solver by nature. I wonder how things work, why they work the way they do, and how to make them better. This means seeking different, outside-the-box methods to figure out solutions to various issues. Accordingly, I am always open to learning new ideas, different ways of doing things, as well as constantly learning from others' experiences to make better decisions. When I see an issue, I view it in a holistic fashion, and then dive into specific areas to remove deficiencies and create efficiencies. If you, who are reading this, have some thoughts or ideas about any of the subjects I discuss, I would be more than happy to speak with you to hear your opinions. Listening, hearing, and understanding different perspectives is the only way that we can all grow and create positive change - by learning from others, and delivering ideas that push the needle to become Forward Thinking.
Share
Since the very first time I ran for Board of Trustees, before it was a "Council", I told myself that I would never accept personal endorsements. To this day, I have kept true to this promise.
The Town owned Page Property is currently moving through the steps of being rezoned as Reserved Open Space. Because half of the property was originally purchased using ARPA Federal grant funds, $3.35 million from our TNACC 4.0 mill levy tax funds will be used to repay the General Fund. Should TNACC property tax be used to fund Affordable Housing (future development, future residents), or to support critical or required Town needs and services (current residents)? With the Town currently experiencing significant budgetary issues and funding constraints, personally, the choice is clear: we should use the funds for general town services that help current residents – not affordable housing, which serves future development and future residents.
Traditional political campaigns are full of broad platforms, general stances, and lofty promises, but they rarely tell how things will actually get fixed. This bridges that gap by offering concrete, immediate solutions rather than just vague goals. I break down 10 practical, actionable policy shifts into single-focus topics. Each highlights one specific, manageable change that can be tackled right away to build momentum in the first 100 days.
An interview with Andrew Sawusch - candidate for Town of Erie Town Council District 1, current Town of Erie Planning Commission Chair, former Town of Erie Council Member - for YellowScene Magazine (Salem Goodman). Interview conducted on September 14, 2026.
Public Comment provided at the August 25, 2026 Town of Erie Council Meeting Ordinance 31-206: An Ordinance of the Town Council of the Town of Erie Repealing Ordinance No. 028-2026 Authorizing the Sale of Minerals to 7N, LLC, Accepting the Conveyance of Real Property from 7N, LLC, and Approving Agreements with 7N, LLC, SM Energy Company, and Extraction Oil and Gas, Inc.
The Town's Finance team has indicated that we will be exhausting our Capital Improvement Fund by 2028. When this occurs, we will not even have enough money to fund such things as our street maintenance needs. In response, Staff has recommended the priority of sustaining this CIF fund, which to do so includes a 10% cut across all departments. As well, they are recommending a new fee be added to our utility bills - a dedicated "Transportation Maintenance Fee" - in order to ensure we have adequate funding for street maintenance in the future. All of this is currently being done to answer one question: How do we pay for our capital needs? Personally, I believe this is the single most important issue facing the Town. It has the potential to affect our everyday life as residents, impacting us in ways both big and small. A concerted effort must be made to stabilize our budget in order to avoid a cascading affect that detrimentally affects all Town services.
Projected to be depleted by 2027, Erie's finance team forecasts the Town's Capital Fund to only have $2.5million available for capital projects (after $4million Street Maintenance) from 2027 through 2029 — due to overspending caused by operational and capital expenses exceeding the growth of revenues
While some call it an "Affordable Housing" issue, in reality the root of the problem is a lack of housing diversity. During the Town's massive growth over the years, a lack of available inventory and the national housing market have created a housing affordability issue as the Town's makeup has comprised almost entirely of single family homes. The best way to resolve this issue is to work with our stakeholders in the community - our development partners - to address the cause, not the symptoms of the issue.
Erie has quickly moved from "the best kept secret" to "the gem of North Metro Denver", becoming a destination that others want to call home. In order to set our Town up for the best chances for success, a plan must be created that provides us with an ability to manage our current and future growth.
The blueprint below is designed to do just that, providing an understanding of where we are now (our "Current Position"), where we are going (our "Upcoming Needs"), and where we want to be (our "Future Growth"). It starts with assessing what's needed at this moment, preparing for what's needed later, and then having a vision to plan for the future.
Tell us briefly about yourself and where you are from and why you think you're a good candidate for the position you are running for: Originally from the Chicagoland area, I have been a resident of Erie since 2016, previously a resident of Broomfield for 7 years. I graduated from CU Boulder in 2009, with a Bachelor of Science degree in Business Administration with dual concentrations in Management and Marketing. I am a business operations and marketing professional, with experience growing businesses from the ground up. Currently, I serve as the Sr. Manager of Customer Operations for a data analytics software company. As a solutions-driven individual, I use a holistic-view approach to identify and resolve issues that deliver results, which are both effective and efficient. I am married to my amazing wife, Gabrielle, and am the doting father of my two husky fur-babies, Kaia and Koda. I currently serve as both a Planning Commissioner and a Comprehensive Plan Amendment Steering Committee member for the Town. As an individual from the business world, I believe the Town needs leaders who can create solutions that will be positive and Forward Thinking for Erie’s Future. I believe that I am a good candidate for the position of Trustee because I am committed to making Erie the thriving and sought-after place to live, work, and raise a family - the place we love to call "home"!